The problem
Human memory reconstructs. After an outcome, people often report higher confidence than they actually had. This effect (hindsight bias) erases assumptions and alternatives that shaped the decision. Membria CE addresses this by:- Capturing context before the outcome (timestamped, confidence, predictions).
- Keeping every record immutable so original reasoning stays intact.
- Comparing predictions to outcomes to surface calibration gaps.
The role of DBB
The Decision Black Box does not summarize conversations. It extracts decision pivots and preserves the causal chain:- Premises and assumptions
- Alternatives considered
- Trigger or finalizer
- Outcome expectations and confidence